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05/13/2007: "More grounds for scepticism about computer models of climate change "
My first post on 'the science' of climate variance was very sceptical. No scientist, I do have experience of financial data analysis and the modeling of financial systems. Here is an interesting video from a group of Canadian sceptics, who call themselves Friends of Science. On their home page are links to other scientific groups. I was particularly struck by this paper recording the failure of past attempts to model climate variance: out of sample observations for the past 19 years have failed to validate the predictions. I doubt the scientists were surprised: this a hugely complex and little-understood system to make hypotheses about. In finance, we wouldn't even attempt it. There seem to be a lot of non-scientists (the IPCC included) who are eager to attribute greater certainty than is plausible. Do they have an agenda? Or has a popular delusion developed its own momentum (a familiar feature of financial markets)?
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